The Effect Of Exchange Rate Fluctuation On Imported Goods In Nigeria


Over the years the Nigeria economy witnessed instability and all these can narrow down to the upheaval of the exchange rate. This led the Nigeria government into promulgating the structural adjustment degree 23 of July, 1986. Exchange rate policy was one of the policies embarked upon to turn around the economy. Ojo (1998:6) said that movement on the exchange rate are known to have ripple effect on other economic variables such as interest rate, unemployment, money supply import volume etc. these facts underscore the importance of exchange rate to the economy of every what opens its doors to International Trade in goods and services. In a market friendly economic environment, the exchange rate should respond to the market forces of demand for supply of foreign exchange.

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At the other extreme, the exchange rate may be administered determined depending on the peculiarities of the economy that is adopting the system.

However, exchange rate which is synonymous with price is best fixed at equilibrium where demand and supply interest which is mostly likely to be at a price commensurate with the perceived value of the offer or else buyers will turn to competitors for their product choice (Kotler 1984:70) but in the case of foreign exchange rate there is alternative to it and it is like the dealers enjoy autonomous monopoly this is the reason why foreign exchange market is a peculiar one that has constituted a source of worry to the government and the populace.

The exchange rate has always being on the increase, any downward trend is momentary and it goes up again. This chapter will be discussed under the following headings:

  1. Exchange rate development in Nigeria.
  2. The policies governing external trade and finance in Nigeria.
  3. Exchange rate fluctuations and the Dollar problem its effects on imported goods.


Ojo (1998) determination varies from country to country and from one period of another in the last three decades, there have been frequent shifts in the exchange rate policies of most economics of the world as dictated by changing economic and financial conditions. Yet, in any countries efforts to achieve valuable exchange rate policies are still on as their domestic and international economic environments have not sufficiently stabilized.

Past exchange rate policies in Nigeria have often been directed largely at effort to restrict or ration the use of foreign exchange at officially determined rates. However, recent policy shifts have reflected a move towards market determined exchange rates.



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Ojo (1998:6) said that the main objective of a nation exchange rate policy is to have a stabilize exchange rate in consonance with other macro economics foundations.

This is because exchange rate stability can have serious and verse consequences on prices, investments and international trade decisions.

In a similar vein, a realistic exchange rate is one that reflects the strength of in the balance of payment that is consistent with the cost and price levels of trading partners. To attain this objective, a country may feel compelled to shift the policy stance of the exchange rate determination as the condition of the economy dictates. In most economic of the world that they are allowed the out of government inventions.

In some other economics, the exchange rate may be administratively determined in which case the work is fixed by flat to one or more convertible currencies without due regards to the appropriate market value between the two extreme cases of exchange rate determination, there is the dual exchange rate system an admixture of both regimes of fixed and markets determined rates and multiplied for different transactions. In sense, exchange rate determination is influenced by the type of exchange rate regime being adopted.


Ojo (1998) in his paper on exchange rate development in Nigeria asserted that the dual and multiple exchange rates regimes are usually adopted to correct peculiar economic problems and may be jettison as soon as the objectives for which they were introduce have been attained.

Under a free float regime, however, the two main factors that influence the determination of the exchange rate and its movement are the policy stance of government as well as the activities of operators in foreign exchange market.

The policy stance of government will be based on the pulse of the economy especially in the external sector, as well as the need to attain a realistic exchange rate that will equate the purchasing power parity level.


Olukole (1992) in his presentation on exchange rate development said that in practice, the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) theory presupposes a comparism of relative inflation rate among different countries. In this simplest version, if we think of only one product, PPP says that the price of a product (ignoring cost like transportation and local taxes) should be the same regardless of the country where it is purchased. If a particular car become more costly in Germany than in France, there will be a tendency for car price to decrease in Germany and increase in France.

As this continues, there will be tendency for the Germany market to depreciate against France car prices and the exchange between the two currencies will continue changing until the price of the car in the two countries, adjusted by the exchange rate are the same for a country as a whole PPP in value the comparism of aggregate inflation rate of aggregate change level. PPP postulates with if the inflation rate in a given country accelerates relative to other countries. The country currencies would tend to depreciate relatively to other currencies.


Market expectation can be a very important factor, which affects financial return.

  1. Market participants who are capable of doing exchange transactions in two different ways; covered and uncovered for examples, the person who borrow sterling today planning to repay the loan with US Dollar in three month time has an exchange risk. If the Dollar depreciates against Pound sterling during the intervening period, there will be an exchange loss to avoid this risk; the borrower will sell US Dollar against sterling for delivery in three month say at a discount on the Dollar of 2% per annum.
  2. Technical and psychological factors; it is uncommon two opinions at the same time regarding the trend of specific currency in the exchange market one trend, which is based on the fundamental economic forces. The other opinion may be concerned with the very short term trend of a currency, which short term is based on the technical and psychological condition of the market. Whenever there is a discrepancy between the previously held expectation of a given economic event and the actual outcome of that event, exchange rates will usually be affected.



The balance of payment could be used as a barometer of the forces of demand for and supply of foreign exchange in the market especially the current account balance is often considered to be a measure of these forces for example in 1980, the United State current balance showed a surplus of U.S. 372 Billion. This surplus indicated that supply of foreign currency exceeded the demand for foreign currency used to trade goods and services between the Limited State and the rest of the world. In the absence of any other transaction balance will tend to put pressure on the prices of foreign currencies against the United State Dollar. In other words, where will be pressure from a depreciation of Dollar, in other words, there will be pressure from a depreciation of foreign currencies relative to United State Dollar.

2.1.2 EXCHANGE RATE POLICIES IN NIGERIA FROM (1960 – 1998)       The exchange rate regimes that are currently applied in varied forms all over the world are more or less off shoots of push attempts at attaining realistic and sustainable exchange rate in the world economy. Ojo (1998:7), the main objective of the exchange rate policy in Nigeria is now to have a realistic exchange rate which would remove the existing distortions and disequilibrium in external sectors of the economy as well as case, our persistent balance of payments problems (Olukole 1992:41). What has probably contributed to our problems in the external sector of the economy is the over valuation of currency. This fact has made this country to be more important depended and less self-reliant in an export driven economy. In the past different exchange rate has been used depending on the economic situation in the country from time to time sometime in response to the changing exchange rate policies in the world.

The major exchange rate regimes that have been adopted in the past and which now influences exchange rate policies across the globe include fixed or gold standard, the adjustable peg or the Dollar standard, the free floating exchange are system and the managed floating regime.


This has a post war arrangement which precede the establishment of the Bretton wood institution in 1945:16 was in vogue up to 1971 when the convertibility of the Dollar into gold was suspended by the United State on account of balance of payment problem. This regime has three distinguishing characteristics. Firstly, the government of each country fixes the price of gold in terms of its domestic country. Secondly, the government maintains the convertibility of the domestic currency into gold. Thirdly, the government abides by a rule that links domestic money creation to the governments holding of fold, which implies 100 percentage or 100 percent gold backing from the money supply.


Unlike the gold standard where nominal exchange rate are fixed indefinitely. Ojo (1998:7) said that under the adjustable peg or Dollar standard exchange rates are fixed but countries are allowed occasionally to alter their exchange rate.

This regime was in operation for a quarter of a century after the second World War under this system other countries agreed to fix their exchange rate against the Dollar standard.

Corresponding to the second ruse of the gold standard currencies was convertible against the Dollar rather than gold. Central banks were committed to buyer or sell Dollar to intervene in the foreign exchange market to depend the fixed exchange rate against the Dollar. The important difference between the gold standard and the Dollar standard was that where was no longer 100 percent backing for the domestic currency and governments could print as much money as they wished. This had the implication of inhibiting the adjustment mechanism built into the gold standard from solving in balances in international payment.




This regime evolved as a result of the 1917 international monetary crises by same countries to float their currencies individually against the United State Dollar and against other currencies.

In this regime, the exchange rate is allowed to attain its free market equilibrium level without government intervention. In adopting government intervention, it is necessary first to determine the equilibrium exchange of the currency often done using the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) approach.

In simplest interpretation, the PPP States that identical goods should cost the same in all countries or in general, that price of a basket of goods produced in two countries should be the same when expressed in a common currency.


As countries abandoned the extreme case of exchange rate regime i.e. fixed and floating systems, they embraced a managed float regime enface, exchange rates have rarely period since 1973 when the Bretton words systems of the adjustable peg was replaced by a floating exchange rate regime. This regime is operated when central bank intervene in the market either to remove fluctuation in the exchange rate align the currency with economic fundamental or to move the exchange rate in a desired direction.

Within the contest of the managed float there are exchange rate arrangements such as pegging to a single currency (e.g. United State Dollar, French France) and pegging to a basket of currencies e.g. currencies of trading partners.


After December 1981 when the United State abandoned her obligation to convert US Dollar into Gold, all the currencies of the world were re-aligned. The value of the Naira was adjusted from the pre December 1971 level State above in relation to the Pound sterling or the US Dollars performance against a basket of currencies.

The currencies were the Deutche Mark, Swiss France, French, France, Dutch Guilder, Japanese Yen and Canadian Dollar.


A basket method of calculating the exchange rate similar to Kuf standard basket method of SDR valuation was introduced on February 28, 1978. The seven currencies included in the basket which were assigned different trade weights were the US Dollar, the Pound sterling, the Japanese Yen, the French France, the Swiss Franc and the Dutch Guilder. The weight were based on the relative share of the currencies whose currencies where included in the basket in Nigeria 1976 total import to reflect the fact that the bulk of Nigeria external payment were in Pound sterling and the US Dollar, the weight from the two currencies were relatively higher than others.


On October 3rd, 1983 the in complained about the higher incidence in our Naira exchange rate quotation having risen above the stipulated 2% limit consequently, the management evolved on system whereby the perennial problem being caused by arbitrate incidence in our Naira exchange rate quotation could be adopted to solve once and for all the problems. With this system, the Naira exchange rate was quoted against a single currency Dollar reducing the degree of divergence and with a will arbitrage position vis-à-vis the US Dollar and the Pound sterling.

Although the incidence of arbitrage was wiped out, the system had a disadvantage of making the Naira to sink with US Dollar or float with it as the case may be in the word foreign exchange markets. The system in effect was marinating the US/Naira at a point of about $1.0004 and the cross rated of other currencies i.e. the other currency rates take cue from such quoted US Dollar/Naira rates.


From 1984 – 1986, the country adopted crawling peg system by relating the value of the Naira to the Pound sterling and the US Dollar as her two currencies of intention. This was because the bulk of Nigeria external payments were made in Pound sterling and the US Dollar. From time to time, the relative value of the Naira vis-à-vis the Pound sterling and US Dollar was adjusted as necessary.

As mentioned earlier it was however agreed that, the use of the US Dollar be adopted in 1985 as a sole currencies of intervention in order to solve the perennial problem caused by arbitrage incidence in our Naira exchange rate quotation.


Olukole (1992:43) explained that before 1986, the Naira was perceived to have been over value. In order to find a realistic value of the Naira the concept of the second tier foreign exchange market was moved.

Since one way of achieving such a realistic exchange rate was through a market determined rate of the auction of foreign exchange to authorized dealers, the SFEM, backed by a decree, came into existence on 29th September, 1986. However, the second tier market and the existing first tier market were allowed to operate side by side until 2nd July, 1987 following the convergences of the two rates. The first tier market was terminated and a Unified Foreign Exchange Market (FEM) was evolved with effect from that data. The first tier at the inception of SEM was $1N1.5691 and merge with the second tier rate at N3.7258.

2.1.3 THE PERIOD 1986 – 1994

Ojo (1998:8) said that before 1986, as a result of the trade practices in vogue then, which also informed the fixed regime adopted in the Naira, the currency was perceived to have been over value.

This was the main contributing factor to the problems of Nigeria external sector in those years a fact which has made the country to be more import dependent and less non oil export driven in the last quarters of a century.

The country was therefore unable to achieve the main objectives of policy during the period. In other to find a realistic value of the Naira, the approach of the second tier foreign exchange market was tied under the structural adjustment programme distortions in economy.


This was introduced at the inception of system. Two different rates operated side-by-side in the market and these were the first and second tier exchange rates while pre stem transactions, debts services payments expenses of the Nigeria emphasis abroad and contribution to international organization were settled at the first tier rate was determined by action at the stem  which was operated by the Central Bank various methods were applied to fine tune system while the regime hasted. These included the average pricing method, system however created the problem of multiplicity of rates which resulted in further depreciation of the Naira.


During the first and second bidding session on 26/9/86 and 2nd October 1986, the Central Bank of Nigeria used the simple average of the authorized dealers.

However, marginal rate was used as a cutoff point to determine successful bidders. This method was criticized on the ground that the much needed realistic exchange rate might be inclusive, marginal rates were not only used to determine successful bidders but also to debit the account of authorized dealers on the sale of forex made to them.



However, the depreciation of the Naira  the Dutch Auction System which was on 2/4/87 under the system, the marginal rate continued to be used to determine the successful bids but the successful banks were debited at their various bid rates plus 1% exchange equalization levy.

The Dutch Auction System remained in force till the end of 1988 when there was an observed wide different of about 55% between FEM rates and the autonomous market rate, a situation which caused enough concern to necessitate review.


Owning to the subsidy elements in the two rates adopted under the dual exchange rate system, the regime was open and subjected to a lat of abuses. Therefore, the twp rates, the first and second tier rates were werged in July 1987 into a unified exchange rate and the market was called FEM (Foreign Exchange Market) thereby subjected all transactions to market press.

But the persistent depreciation of Naira exchange rate led to the separation of the inter-bank  market for bank from the official market resulting in the emergence of an autonomous market with its independent rate for private sourced foreign exchange.

This autonomous rate was subsequently the inter-bank Foreign Exchange Market (FEM) because the autonomous rate had depreciated continuously. To further eliminate the abuses inherent in the system and reduce exchange rate instability, the Naira exchange rate under this regional and average rate pricing highest and lowest bids, weighed average of successful bids.

The Dutch Actions System (PASOW was re-introduced in December, 1990 while the weighted average method was adopted in 1991, in order to reduce wide fluctuation in the exchange rate.


Even under the method in (b) above, there was persistent instability in the exchange rate and this led the Central Bank to deregulate the exchange rate system further on 5th March 1992, by depreciating the Naira exchange rate at the FEM again in order to equate it with the parallel arte which was considered the more appropriate indicator Naira vis-à-vis other currencies.

The aim was the narrow the parallel market premium and exchange the operational and locative efficiency at the FEM through adequate participation in the market.

Under this new mechanism, the Central Bank bought and sold foreign exchange activity in the market and was expected to supply and requests made by the authorized leaders.

The official exchange rate was adjusted from N10.5564 to N18.00 to $1.00 on March 1992.

However, as a result of renewal, demand pressures and speculative activities, the premium widened again and the high margin that resulted led the re-regulation policy of 1994.




This system was re-introduced in 1994 to stabilize and share up value of the Naira by pegging the Naira exchange rate to N22.00 to $1.00 and by centralizing all foreign exchange market and encouraging increase activities in the productive sector of the economy.

In pursuance of these objectives bureau exchange operation and some designated bank of the Central Bank in the renitence of foreign exchange.

A ministerial foreign exchange allocate committee was constituted to surprise the allocation of foreign exchange to designated sector of foreign exchange to designated sector of the economy to the sectors. The authorized dealers were allowed to bid on behalf of their customers and were mandated in deposit the Naira cover of their bids with the CBN before applications could be approved for bidding.


The dismal performance of the 1994 re-regulation policy especially rate policy in 1995 which was called “Guided Deregulation”.

The new policy was aimed at addressing the substantial depreciation of the Naira exchange rate in the parallel market and achieving efficient allocations and utilization of resource in this regards, the exchange Central Act of 1962 was replaced while the foreign exchange (monitoring of miscellaneous) Provision Decree 17 of 1995 was promulgated.  

The Decree established the Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (AFEM) for trading in privately sourced foreign exchange while the fixed exchange rate in the official market remained for beneficial government transactions.

The rate at the AFEM is market determined while the Central Bank intervenes initially monthly, but later from 1996 to date on weekly basis, in order to regularly monitor developments. In the market and ensure stability in the Naira exchange rate.

This exchange rate policy was retained since 1996 to date because it has achieved a fairly stable exchange rate since its introduction.

This stability was achieved because the system succeed for foreign exchange, thus minimizing the speculative activities inherent in the past regimes.

The supply situation in the AFEM rate to N85 to $ 1.00 in March 1997 and the other rate has virtually remained at this level since then.


Ojo (1998:100) suggested that international experience has shown that no country leaves its exchange rate determination completely to the market force alone, as some levels of intervention is applied from time to time as occasion demand.

Therefore, the central issue is whether exchange rate stability can be such that exchange rate is measured in relation to the estimated equilibrium rate of the currency, the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) exchange rate at a level above or been the equilibrium rate indicates over-valuation of the currency as the case may be, both of which are not ideal as they lead to distortion and misallocation of resources in the economy.

Exchange rate stability should therefore be seen in the content of an appropriate equilibrium rate is not static rate but is dynamic and responds to relevant economic stimuli within and outside the economy such as price level interest rest, monetary expansion or contraction including political and social dispensation among others.

From the above analysis, it will be impossible for any country in which equilibrium exchange rate is not determined to meaningfully target exchange rate stability. This is the situation in most developing countries and Nigeria is no exception.

Most of them focus on exchange rate prevailing in the parallel market and so, stability in the exchange rate market is measured in terms of divergence between the official rate and the parallel rate without deriving any scientific approach to making the parallel rate to equate the equilibrium rate.

The problem measuring exchange rate stability is further complicated in most countries by the policy of administratively fixed the exchange rate at a level over a relatively long period of time.

However, ability to separate the two markets will go a long way in eliminating existing distortion and avoiding capital flights including unhealthy speculative tendencies that usually characterized such segmentation when not properly applied.

It will also serve as succor to a viable exchange rate management strategy. This would however, require decide what transactions are eligible in each market as well be applied in each case. Ojo (1998:13) also said that the problems that are arising from government in Nigeria include excess liquidity arising from government deficit financing, scare foreign exchange inflow, sharp practices in foreign exchange dealings as a result of first the over valuation of the Naira exchange rate and later the high premium between official and autonomous rate as well as capital flight and capacity under utilization in the domestic economy.

His suggestions and recommendation to the above problems are as follows:

  1. There is need for an official approach to the adaption of purchasing power parity as an indicator of the equilibrium level of the Naira exchange rate.
  2. Deficit financial through high powered money has been responsible for excess liquidity which has in turn abetted depreciation of the Naira exchange rate, government should sustains it policy of balance budget and should be committed to it.
  • There should be strict adherence to CBN monetary policy guideline by both, the public and private sectors of excess borrowing for speculative purchases of foreign exchange, a factor that contributed to the massive depreciation of the Naira exchange rate between 1990 – 1994. Fiscalization of monetary policy is not a healthy development for the Nation this problem has been addressed in the 1998 budget, the hoped that it political and social security are pre-requisites for the conducive environment that is needed for attracting foreign investment and bringing in the much needed inflow of both officials and private foreign capital and other autonomous fund.
  1. Government should scrap the policy of giving approval to certain unofficial transaction to be founded at the official rate. This arrangement has been abused and the policy may not be seen to be transparent enough.
  2. There is need to scale down the associated with the process of assessing the various incentive currently available to the non-awarded the full benefits of the schemes as anticipated.

In conclusion in an area of an ever changing global economic environment, especially now when the current economic approach of most countries is towards minimum government and market based economic system. Nigeria cannot afford to be left behind.

This is why the current dual exchange rate regime is welcome and should be operated at least for now until such a time when the economy would have stabilized and further deregulated.


Oduebo (1990:18) in his paper presentation at CBN, said that most countries of the world engaged in exchange of goods and services among themselves.

The need for International Trade arises because no Nation can produce all the goods and services. It can produce most efficiently. Any country that engage in International Trade must involve a set of policies to govern its international transactions including payment arrangement such as the need to protect domestic industries, developments in the external reserves, social-political factors like decision not to trade with particular countries and adherence to the rules and regulation of the organizations/institutions to which a country belongs.

Since early 1960s, Nigeria has played active rates in all the initiative aimed at evolving an economic community embracing the whole of West Africa, with the ultimate objective entity for the development of the sub-region.

Nigeria external trade and finance policies have always been influenced by this desire.



Nigeria Trade and Finance policies encompass all the laws and regulations designed to affect the countries trade and finance with other countries of the world.

Since the attainment of Political Independence in 1960, Nigeria has continue to involve external trade and finance policies such policies which have varied from one change the economic circumstance, economic development goals, socio-political considerations and relationship with internal organizations/institutions. Period of economic buoyancy and affluence have encouraged substantial trade liberalization while difficult periods of reduced foreign exchange scanning have led to restrictive trade policies. National development aspirations enshrine in various National development plans have necessitated various changes in monetary, fiscal and other related measures designed to promote growth in national output, encourage export, protect domestic industries etc.

Socio-political factor of National interest as well as the desirability to identity with the civilized world made it compelling for the nation to follow the world leading to prohibition of some items of trade transactions with countries. Nigeria Membership of International/Institutions such as the GATT, UNCTAD, IMF, World Bank and ECOWAS has also exerted some influence on the countries trade and finance policies. Generally, these organizations/institutions encourage trade and payment liberalization among their trade.

Uduebo (1990:19) and finance in Nigeria said that over the years, aimed at achieving a healthy balance of payments, attaining economic transaction through industrialization and other gain from trade including specializing, market expansion, inflow of foreign capital and technology and the protection of the fact industries the policy instruments adapted to achieve these objective included;



Import duties were levied on imports, with the rates varying from commodity to commodity and over time depending on the type of commodity (Luxury or necessity) or the motive for imposition of duty (protection of local production, discouragement of consumption generation of revenue, increase in domestic supply etc).

Export duties were also levied on some export commodities until those on scheduled agricultural export commodities unity. Those on scheduled agricultural exports were abolished in 1973/1974 fiscal years. Excise duties on domestic products also affected positively/negatively external trade.

Other fiscal measure included imports surcharge and import subsides.

  2. Quantitative restriction through the use of varied firms of imports licensing and variable export restrictions.
  3. Import prohibition of specified items for health safety moral or religion reasons as well as prohibition from certain countries such as South Africa before their Independence for reasons of apartheid.
  4. Investment incentives in the form the tax holiday (pioneer status).
  5. Compulsory deposits for imports and comprehensive import supervision scheme to ensure quality, quantity and prices of the imports.


As in the case of trade policy financial/payments policies during SAP era were largely influenced by the economic circumstances of the country and in particular availability of foreign exchange reserves; improved or deteriorated. For most of the years during the period external trade financing was in conformity with internally laid down norms and procedures.

However, during the critical period of national reconstruction after the Nigeria Civil War in 1972, some payment arrangement procedures which deviated from the established norms were introduced.

These includes:

  1. Payment at the expiration of 900 days from the date of annual at Nigeria ports of capital goods, consumer goods and raw materials for industries casting less than N50,000.00.
  2. Financing under various exports credit schemes.
  • Payment for non-capital goods after 180 days.

Also, in 1982, the life of form “m” was reduced to six months as against one year.

As rewards payments for imports, the authorized dealers were authorized to grant foreign exchange for authorized imports at sight of shipping document or as agreed between the importer and exporter, subject to the approval of the Central Bank for private sector imports and the Ministry of Finance for public imports. For the former, the importer was required to present the customer’s bill on entry within 90 days after allocation of foreign exchange. Any other arrangement between private sector importer and exporter must receive the approval of CBN, if the arrangement involve public sector, the approval of Ministry of Finance would be required.


The introduction of SAP in 1986 led to the adoption for far reading economic policies designed to correct the inadequacies in place hither to and this induce a recovery among the core element in the programme were the adoption of appropriate pricing policies in all sectors with greater reliance on market forces and reduction in complex administrative controls. These involved the adoption of measure including a market determined exchange rate for the Naira, some institutional reforms a reversal of hither to utilize trade incentive as well as introducing of new ones.

There measures are:

  1. A market determined exchange
  2. Institutional reforms
  3. Available incentives

2.2.5        IMPORTS

Imports of goods and services are now substantially liberalized.

The list of prohibited imports was reduced in 1986 from 72 to 16. A few products are still such as maize, wheat and other grains. The main reason for the ban is to enable current efforts directed towards their domestic product to materialized especially the food items.

Some of the items also include those in which Nigeria is self-sufficient. will only provide papers as a reference for your research. The papers ordered and produced should be used as a guide or framework for your own paper. It is the aim of to only provide guidance by which the paper should be pursued. We are neither encouraging any form of plagiarism nor are we advocating the use of the papers produced herein for cheating.

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